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| Professor Obama says, "you're doing great America!" |
What does an article about the factual state of the economy have to do with a webpage devoted to the proliferation of a well-armed, and trained, American citizenry and the end of gun free zones? Obviously economic instability, social volatility and the issues that face armed citizens with the expansion of both.
Whether prepping for a global financial meltdown or simply concerned about their jobs, many Americans believe our economy is in serious trouble and the economic data we receive to the contrary is somehow flawed or outright dishonest.
Last Friday, for example, the media cheer led the Obama administration over the October 2015 Non-Farm Employment number; 271K jobs "added" vs 181K jobs forecast. Ignored was the Non-Farm Employment number, released the first Friday of each month, measures the number of Americans who "lost" their unemployment insurance, not those who transitioned from unemployed to employed.
So if you lost your job and are collecting unemployment insurance the government will consider you reemployed once your unemployment insurance has expired whether you have an actual job or not. Welcome to the madhouse of selectively manipulated Keynesian economic data.
The press also celebrated Obama's "burgeoning" economy by noting a 0.1% drop in the October unemployment rate, from 5.1% to and even 5%. What these economic media experts failed to mention is that the monthly unemployment rate is, by definition, the "percentage of the total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month."
So, just to place this highly-touted but completely idiotic economic metric in perspective, massive segments of the American public can be unemployed, yet still contribute to a lower national unemployment rate. Those of us who follow the Austrian School of Economics have a highly technical term for such statistical manipulation; "bullshit."
With so much intentionally false information masquerading as legitimate economic data, to what, besides asking our neighbors about their job security (or lack of), can we look for a clearer picture of American employment health?
ADP Non-Farm Employment Number
Prior to release of the misleading Non-Farm Employment number, the ADP Non-Farm Employment number is released the first Wednesday of each month and provides a more accurate picture of the real American Economy. This number is also good for sending Keynesian economists into profanity-laced tirades because it actually measures something to do with economic growth or contraction; the number of people receiving, or no longer receiving, pay checks.
ADP provides payroll services (cuts pay checks) to US corporations. Their data from around 400,000 companies is analyzed to derive employment growth estimates. So, basically, the "ADP number" is the difference between the increase or decrease in payroll checks printed, cut, and sent out to employers month to month.
And what would you guess was October's ADP number prior to release of Friday's gushingly good Non-Farm Employment number? Yup, a loss in jobs. 182K actual jobs added vs the 183K jobs expected by surveying economist. This, of course, is only a 1000 point deviation, but overall ADP numbers demonstrate seven of the past ten months, of 2015, have been negatives for employment in the United States. I bet this is no surprise and directly correlates to what your "gut" has been telling you about the economy all along.
In reality four of the past seven years of Obama's "growing" socialist economy have seen monthly job losses with one year, 2013, a break even for jobs, and only two, pre-Obamacare 2011 and 2012, showing job gains over job losses. Don't want to believe the Obama economy, for which the only economic policy initiative has been the destruction of affordable health insurance, is shedding jobs? See for yourself.
Are we being lied to about the real economy? Is promoting a narrative contrary to the facts "lying"?
